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While urbanisation is one of the older trends discussed here (it emerged in the early 20th century in Europe and North America), it is now developing new characteristics. It is by now common knowledge that by 2030 two-thirds of the world will live in cities, but it is often overlooked that:
Far more will live in cities of under 1 million, followed by those between 1 and 5 million. These small- to medium-sized cities are currently growing at twice the rate of megacities which dominate the discussion. But the number of megacities is not projected to increase significantly by 2030. Then, we will see 43 such agglomerations of more than 10 million people in the world (only one of which, Paris, will be located in the EU). Today, depending on how it is counted, there are already between 33 and 47 megacities on the planet. And even though they are and will be an important feature of 2030, they will be home to only 8% of the global urban population, whereas the rest will live in medium-sized cities – the future, while very much urban, will therefore be more Munich than Cairo in size and shape. While this sounds more manageable, it is also this type of medium-sized city, especially in Asia and Africa, which struggles to find the necessary capital to prepare for the challenges related to the coming growth. Europe’s levels and types of urbanisation are therefore very much in line with the rest of the world in 2030: most Europeans already live in cities between 100,000 and one million – and only 7% of the European population lives in cities larger than five million (compared to 25% in the United States), a trend that will remain the same in 2030. This means that" Cities, rather than megacities, are at the centre of all other trends discussed here. Cities will consume 60-80% of energy resources, will be responsible for 70% of global emissions, account for 70% of the world gross domestic product and 35% of GDP growth. Cities are also where inequality and social exclusion are particularly pronounced, and where citizens interact chiefly with governance: while only 21% of Europeans declared to have faith in national governments, 45% declared to have faith in regional and city governments. Cities are the centre of innovation, of economic activity, but also the recipients of migration movements and the theatre for political discontent, conflict, terrorism and crime. Cities that offer attractive employment draw in an educated workforce from other parts of the country, contributing to salary segregation within a given country. When we say 2030 will be urban, this is not merely an expression of residency, it will be the way of life of society as a whole. What does this mean? Where urban growth occurs in an uncontrolled fashion, it leads to urban sprawl, low productivity, segregation, congestion and crime. That said, there are a number of reasons why a city is an attractive destination: on average, relocating to a city has improved the lives even of those living in dire circumstances – for example, by allowing for better access to water and electricity. This means that the city should be understood not merely as a hotbed of problems, but as a potential accelerator of human progress – if managed properly.
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